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A mere two months in the past when the Villa attacker was standing on the Sunderland turf, seeming perplexed as the Villa manager scolded him over missing a pass in behind. Back then, as Villa went six without a win, the question was whether his performances were a sign or the reason for the side's more general malaise.

“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”

In the latest match, in contrast, the sideline response was much more joyous. After Rogers swept in his brace-sealing goal to reclaim his side's advantage, the Spanish tactician discarded his coat, threw his arms wide and roared. Villa marched on to ten wins in a row , after failing to win their opening six matches, find themselves a mere three points adrift of the leaders Arsenal.

Are They Genuine Hopefuls?

This is a particularly tough question to address. Past precedent, the traditional standing of this institution, argues against it. Additionally, they have not been entirely convincing this season, while the victories have stacked up.

Per the data, on just two occasions has the team had an expected goals figure notably superior than the opposition. For a club that have strung together ten consecutive victories, the Villans seem weirdly vulnerable – yet at the moment the fine lines are falling their way.

The Winning Formula

Their recent policy appears to be to exchange chances with an opponent and wait for Rogers to save the day with some precise efforts. It happened away to Leeds, it transpired against West Ham, and once more versus Manchester United.

Rogers' first goal stemmed from a superb shot, bent just inside the upright from a wide position. The follow-up goal acted as a somewhat messier replica of goal number one capitalizing on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.

“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”

Can It Last?

Logic says not. During the latest victory, the opposition registered a greater number of attempts and more efforts on goal. Villa have won each of their last eight by a single goal. They have allowed goals in all except one of those matches.

Regression to the mean may well be the most significant challenge they will encounter as the season progresses. Their key man, almost certainly, cannot keep on drilling the ball into the net's top corner week in, week out.

A Case for Belief

Perhaps there is another reality whereby, rather than results trending towards performances, performances begin to trend towards results. Vital cogs could still rediscover their best form.

• Ollie Watkins could start finding the net regularly.
• The winger might become the force he showed in Germany.
• The defensive duo are set to return from injury, strengthening a periodically leaky defensive unit.

Maybe within that lies the potential of a genuine bid, yet it seems unlikely can continue to depend solely on Morgan Rogers.

Savoring the Moment

Yet, this is a surprise. Few believed Aston Villa would be third at Christmas. And certainly earlier this season, few could imagine the midfielder now would be at the forefront of a hunt for the title and appearing as a crucial player for the national team.

This remarkable period should be enjoyed precisely because it appears so improbable. When the match-winner positioned himself before the North End at the final whistle conducting the cheers, it was clear to be thoroughly enjoying it. A feeling he has rightly earned. These spells are rare in football and ought to be celebrated.