🔗 Share this article

Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare

The sequence of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: positive announcements are released from various governments. Considerable effort is expended on restraining particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "settlement".

Nocturnal Warfare

As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from across the border, a capability enabled by current data. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been dispatched to intercept incoming aerial threats roared overhead – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by European allies.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: defensive missiles fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably delivered by partner states. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly transforms into sober acceptance: maybe the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from devastation and additional electricity failures.

Continuous Dangers

Not long after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – most likely imported technology. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its target.

With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: seven people killed, destruction and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a reliance that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to fill in the immediate future.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The comprehensive proposal from US administration sparked intense emotion, discussion and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.

Every new proposal from Washington unfolds according to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, undoubtedly, persist.

Tactical Assessments

It is tempting to accuse specific actors of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington works based on a principle well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration assumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to surrender the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does nothing to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the status quo will not shift further in its favour in the near future.

Divergent Views

Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the result.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing people and territory but avoiding a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its benefit.

Existing Situation

Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be much harder after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.

Summary and Prospects

It took a just a single week to eliminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.

While new proposals based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show specific hesitation to modify developments, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on continued Western support.