🔗 Share this article

Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that divided the country and caused chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.

That is the message from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Institutions Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."

New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue

The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to stir debate on the topic with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.

"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.

"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."

Legal Framework

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a national vote.

Absence of Informed Dialogue

Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.

"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in academia but very few politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with even the essentials. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. They composes two pieces that seek impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and societal figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.

Discussions range over flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.

"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.

Probability of Public Vote

The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless government minister who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will win here and the other side will eventually lose but both parties has possesses valuable insights to learn from the alternative arguments."

Request for Wider Dialogue

Westminster must join the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."